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French Socialist Vote ‘Weakens’ Party’s Challenge to Sarkozy

By Celestine Bohlen

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Martine Aubry’s victory over Segolene Royal as the French Socialist Party’s leader won’t end the fight that has riven the opposition to President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Royal vowed to continue her “battle to transform the party” as she conceded defeat late yesterday after a recount showed a margin of 102 votes out of 134,800 ballots cast.

The fight between two of France’s most prominent women politicians -- Aubry, the 58-year-old mayor of the northern city of Lille best known as the author of the 35-hour-work-week law, and Royal, 55, the 2007 presidential candidate -- may sap a potential challenge to Sarkozy as unemployment climbs amid a slowing economy.

“This will certainly weaken the party and keep it from taking advantage of the country’s economic and financial difficulties that normally, would give them a chance to critique the government,” said Jerome Sainte-Marie, president of iSAMA, a Paris-based polling company. “The French people want a political party that they can have confidence in.”

Sarkozy’s allies have mocked their rivals quarrel. Roger Karoutchi, his minister for parliamentary relations, suggested in a Nov. 24 statement sending “a mission of outside observers” to help the Socialists’ vote.

The dispute in the party that traces its roots to Europe’s earliest Socialists in the early 20th century, stems from personal and political differences between Royal and Aubry.

‘Detest Each Other’

“They don’t like each other, they even detest each other, but it is also profoundly ideological,” Gael Sliman, director of BVA Opinion, a Paris-based polling company

Royal sees the party as ideologically flexible, able to form a coalition with the centrist party, MoDem, founded by former presidential contender Francois Bayrou. Her leadership style is more regal, said Sainte-Marie. “Royal is not collegial, her leadership is more personal,” he said.

By contrast, Aubry is wedded to traditional themes such as a shorter work week and social protections, and has suggested allying with the Green Party and Communists.

Added to that is what Sliman called the bitterness left from Royal’s 2007 run. She failed to topple Sarkozy, a minister in Jacques Chirac’s unpopular government.

“They think she cost them the election last year, and she could do it again in 2012,” said Sliman.

Royal blamed her loss on fellow Socialists who she says failed to support her. In her book, ‘‘My Most Beautiful Story is You,” published last December, she described them as “a herd of elephants that swore, consciously or subconsciously to crush me or to wait for my fall, ready to replace me.”

Party Congress

After a party Congress two weeks ago in the city of Rheims, the contest to replace Francois Hollande, the party’s current secretary and Royal’s former companion, began with a first-round vote on Nov. 20 that Royal won with 43 percent to Aubry’s 34.5 percent. A third candidate, Benoit Hamon, threw his support to Aubry, daughter of former European Commission President Jacques Delors.

Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanoe also backed Aubry, reinforcing suspicions among Royal’s supporters that an “Anyone But Segolene” movement was afoot. In the second round on Nov. 21, Aubry won with 50.02, compared to Royal’s 49.98 percent.

By winning almost half of the vote, Royal made a surprising comeback that could still carry her forward to 2011, when the Socialist party is due to hold its primary for the 2012 presidential elections, said Sainte-Marie.

Sliman said that Royal will continue to threaten party unity. “She could be a big source of nuisance for Aubry,” he said. “She could be a pebble in her shoe.”

To contact the reporter on the story: Celestine Bohlen at cbohlen1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 26, 2008 06:32 EST